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Saturday, March 21, 2026

A First Estimate Of The Costs Of Militarized Rivalry with China

 

"According to Jennifer Kavanagh, Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis at Defense Priorities, the U.S. has spent at least $3.4 trillion countering China militarily since 2012. This figure, an average of $260 billion a year, is more than total U.S. spending on 20 years of war in Afghanistan ($2.3 trillion)."

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"This report provides the first estimate of the amount the U.S. has spent competing with China in the military domain over the period between 2012 and 2024. This period follows then-President Barack Obama’s November 2011 announcement of his intention to “pivot” U.S. attention from the Middle East toward Asia. In addition to Department of Defense spending, the analysis also includes relevant expenditures by the intelligence agencies, Department of Homeland Security, Department of Energy, and the State Department. The estimate is a best approximation of total spending focused on military competition with China – and excludes costs associated with economic or technological competition, for example. It also likely represents an undercount of the actual total China-focused military spending due to conservative methodological decisions made throughout the analysis.

Broken down by government agency, the Navy and Marine Corps are responsible for an estimated 33% of the total cost estimate for spending on militarized rivalry with China, followed by Defense Agencies (25%), the Air Force and Space Force (15%) and the Army (14%).

The paper also looks at some of the opportunity costs of this spending: Completely redoing the nation’s air traffic control system ($31.5 billion) and repairing all of the bridges currently rated in poor condition ($319 billion) would comprise about 10 percent of the expense of U.S. military competition with China between 2012-2024. Alternatively, the United States could fund about 85 years of tuition-free college education for all U.S. college goers."

VIEW THE FULL REPORT

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Jennifer Kavanagh

Jennifer Kavenaugh is a Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis, Defense Priorities.jennifer.kavanagh@defp.orgWebsiteA political scientist by training, Kavanagh has spent her career studying U.S. national security and defense policy. Kavanagh’s research focuses on U.S. military strategy, force structure and defense budgeting, the defense industrial base, and U.S. military deployments and interventions.


Sunday, March 15, 2026

The US Military Has Became A Wal-Mart

Click Image To Enlarge

“FOREIGN POLICY”  
By 
“Asking warriors to do everything poses great dangers for our country — and the military.
Our armed services have become the one-stop shop for America’s policymakers.
Here’s the vicious circle in which we’ve trapped ourselves: As we face novel security threats from novel quarters — emanating from nonstate terrorist networks, from cyberspace, and from the impact of poverty, genocide, or political repression, for instance — we’ve gotten into the habit of viewing every new threat through the lens of “war,” thus asking our military to take on an ever-expanding range of nontraditional tasks. But viewing more and more threats as “war” brings more and more spheres of human activity into the ambit of the law of war, with its greater tolerance of secrecy, violence, and coercion — and its reduced protections for basic rights.
Meanwhile, asking the military to take on more and more new tasks requires higher military budgets, forcing us to look for savings elsewhere, so we freeze or cut spending on civilian diplomacy and development programs. As budget cuts cripple civilian agencies, their capabilities dwindle, and we look to the military to pick up the slack, further expanding its role.
“If your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” The old adage applies here as well. If your only functioning government institution is the military, everything looks like a war, and “war rules” appear to apply everywhere, displacing peacetime laws and norms. When everything looks like war, everything looks like a military mission, displacing civilian institutions and undermining their credibility while overloading the military.
More is at stake than most of us realize. Recall Shakespeare’s Henry V:
In peace there’s nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility:
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favour’d rage 
In war, we expect warriors to act in ways that would be immoral and illegal in peacetime. But when the boundaries around war and the military expand and blur, we lose our ability to determine which actions should be praised and which should be condemned.
For precisely this reason, humans have sought throughout history to draw sharp lines between war and peace — and between the role of the warrior and the role of the civilian. Until less than a century ago, for instance, most Western societies maintained that wars should be formally declared, take place upon clearly delineated battlefields, and be fought by uniformed soldiers operating within specialized, hierarchical military organizations. In different societies and earlier times, humans developed other rituals to delineate war’s boundaries, from war drums and war sorcery to war paint and complex initiation rites for warriors.
Like a thousand other human tribes before us, we modern Americans also engage in elaborate rituals to distinguish between warriors and civilians: Our soldiers shear off their hair, display special symbols on their chests, engage in carefully choreographed drill ceremonies, and name their weapons for fearsome spirits and totem animals (the Hornet, the Black Hawk, the Reaper). And despite the changes ushered in by the 9/11 attacks, most of us view war as a distinct and separate sphere, one that shouldn’t intrude into our everyday world of offices, shopping malls, schools, and soccer games. Likewise, we relegate war to the military, a distinct social institution that we simultaneously lionize and ignore. War, we like to think, is an easily recognizable exception to the normal state of affairs and the military an institution that can be easily, if tautologically, defined by its specialized, war-related functions.
But in a world rife with transnational terrorist networks, cyberwarriors, and disruptive nonstate actors, this is no longer true. Our traditional categories — war and peace, military and civilian — are becoming almost useless.
In a cyberwar or a war on terrorism, there can be no boundaries in time or space: We can’t point to the battlefield on a map or articulate circumstances in which such a war might end. We’re no longer sure what counts as a weapon, either: A hijacked passenger plane? A line of computer code? We can’t even define the enemy: Though the United States has been dropping bombs in Syria for almost two years, for instance, no one seems sure if our enemy is a terrorist organization, an insurgent group, a loose-knit collection of individuals, a Russian or Iranian proxy army, or perhaps just chaos itself.
We’ve also lost any coherent basis for distinguishing between combatants and civilians: Is a Chinese hacker a combatant? What about a financier for Somalia’s al-Shabab, or a Pakistani teen who shares extremist propaganda on Facebook, or a Russian engineer paid by the Islamic State to maintain captured Syrian oil fields?
When there’s a war, the law of war applies, and states and their agents have great latitude in using lethal force and other forms of coercion. Peacetime law is the opposite, emphasizing individual rights, due process, and accountability.
When we lose the ability to draw clear, consistent distinctions between war and not-war, we lose any principled basis for making the most vital decisions a democracy can make: Which matters, if any, should be beyond the scope of judicial review? When can a government have “secret laws”? When can the state monitor its citizens’ phone calls and email? Who can be imprisoned and with what degree, if any, of due process? Where, when, and against whom can lethal force be used? Should we consider U.S. drone strikes in Yemen or Libya the lawful wartime targeting of enemy combatants or nothing more than simple murder?
When we heedlessly expand what we label “war,” we also lose our ability to make sound decisions about which tasks we should assign to the military and which should be left to civilians.
Today, American military personnel operate in nearly every country on Earth — and do nearly every job on the planet. They launch raids and agricultural reform projects, plan airstrikes and small-business development initiatives, train parliamentarians and produce TV soap operas. They patrol for pirates, vaccinate cows, monitor global email communications, and design programs to prevent human trafficking.
Many years ago, when I was in law school, I applied for a management consulting job at McKinsey & Co. During one of the interviews, I was given a hypothetical business scenario: “Imagine you run a small family-owned general store. Business is good, but one day you learn that Walmart is about to open a store a block away. What do you do?”
“Roll over and die,” I said immediately.
The interviewer’s pursed lips suggested that this was the wrong answer, and no doubt a plucky mom-and-pop operation wouldn’t go down without a fight: They’d look for a niche, appeal to neighborhood sentiment, or maybe get artisanal and start serving hand-roasted chicory soy lattes. But we all know the odds would be against them: When Walmart shows up, the writing is on the wall.
Like Walmart, today’s military can marshal vast resources and exploit economies of scale in ways impossible for small mom-and-pop operations. And like Walmart, the tempting one-stop-shopping convenience it offers has a devastating effect on smaller, more traditional enterprises — in this case, the State Department and other U.S. civilian foreign-policy agencies, which are steadily shrinking into irrelevance in our ever-more militarized world. The Pentagon isn’t as good at promoting agricultural or economic reform as the State Department or the U.S. Agency for International Development — but unlike our civilian government agencies, the Pentagon has millions of employees willing to work insane hours in terrible conditions, and it’s open 24/7.
It’s fashionable to despise Walmart — for its cheap, tawdry goods, for its sheer vastness and mindless ubiquity, and for the human pain we suspect lies at the heart of the enterprise. Most of the time, we prefer not to see it and use zoning laws to exile its big-box stores to the commercial hinterlands away from the center of town. But as much as we resent Walmart, most of us would be hard-pressed to live without it.
As the U.S. military struggles to define its role and mission, it evokes similarly contradictory emotions in the civilian population. Civilian government officials want a military that costs less but provides more, a military that stays deferentially out of strategy discussions but remains eternally available to ride to the rescue. We want a military that will prosecute our ever-expanding wars but never ask us to face the difficult moral and legal questions created by the eroding boundaries between war and peace.
We want a military that can solve every global problem but is content to remain safely quarantined on isolated bases, separated from the rest of us by barbed wire fences, anachronistic rituals, and acres of cultural misunderstanding. Indeed, even as the boundaries around war have blurred and the military’s activities have expanded, the U.S. military itself — as a human institution — has grown more and more sharply delineated from the broader society it is charged with protecting, leaving fewer and fewer civilians with the knowledge or confidence to raise questions about how we define war or how the military operates.
It’s not too late to change all this.
No divine power proclaimed that calling something “war” should free us from the constraints of morality or common sense or that only certain tasks should be the proper province of those wearing uniforms. We came up with the concepts, definitions, laws, and institutions that now trap and confound us — and they’re no more eternal than the rituals and categories used by any of the human tribes that have gone before us.
We don’t have to accept a world full of boundary-less wars that can never end, in which the military has lost any coherent sense of purpose or limits. If the moral and legal ambiguity of U.S.-targeted killings bothers us, or we worry about government secrecy or indefinite detention, we can mandate new checks and balances that transcend the traditional distinctions between war and peace. If we don’t like the simultaneous isolation and Walmartization of our military, we can change the way we recruit, train, deploy, and treat those who serve, change the way we define the military’s role, and reinvigorate our civilian foreign-policy institutions.
After all, few generals actually want to preside over the military’s remorseless Walmartization: They too fear that, in the end, the nation’s over-reliance on an expanding military risks destroying not only the civilian competition but the military itself. They worry that the armed services, under constant pressure to be all things to all people, could eventually find themselves able to offer little of enduring value to anyone.
Ultimately, they fear that the U.S. military could come to resemble a Walmart on the day after a Black Friday sale: stripped almost bare by a society both greedy for what it can provide and resentful of its dominance, with nothing left behind but demoralized employees and some shoddy mass-produced items strewn haphazardly around the aisles.”

Sunday, March 08, 2026

United States Warfare Realities And The Inevitable Changes On The Horizon


In the last 25 years the US has reacted to the 911 tragedy by creating a behemoth machine that knows only killing, demonstrating little understanding of foreign cultural factors in nation building, spawning new versions of our old enemies, creating a dangerous outgrowth of technology in the military industrial complex, then exporting it for profit, while defying financial control, resulting in dire consequences for the nation’s economic future. 

These warfare realities cannot, and will not, continue.


Knows Only Killing  

















An outrageous explosion of watch listing—of monitoring people and racking and stacking them on lists, assigning them numbers…  assigning them death sentences without notice, on a worldwide battlefield—it was, from the very first instance, wrong,” the source of the documents told the Intercept. “We’re allowing this to happen. And by ‘we,’ I mean every American citizen who has access to this information now, but continues to do nothing about it.” She Kills People From 7,850 Miles Away

Has Little Understanding of Foreign Cultural Factors in Nation Building


Our government has not considered the risks, the indigenous cultural impact, the expense and the sacrifices required to sustain the nation building that must occur after we invade countries in pursuit of perceived enemies and place the burden of governance on military personnel who are not equipped to deal with it or manage USAID contractors who have profit motives in mind and corruption as a regular practice.  Risks, Expenses and Sacrifices in Nation Building 

Spawns New Versions of Our Old Enemies 



An observer of our military actions over the last two decades in the Middle East could in no way have predicted the splintered, irrational, “Turn-Your-Back-And-You-Have-Two-New-Enemies”, scenario the US faces today. Perhaps a look back over our shoulder, examining cause and effect relationships along the road is in order. Cause and Effect Relationships in the Middle East 

Creates a Dangerous Outgrowth of Technology in the Military Industrial Complex and Then Exports It for Profit






















The United States remains the leading arms exporter increasing sales by 23 percent, with the country’s share of the global arms trade at 31 percent. Record US Weapons Sales to Foreign Countries – $1.6 Billion in Lockheed Martin Missiles Alone

 Very smart people in the Pentagon believed that connecting sensitive networks, expensive equipment, and powerful weapons to the open Internet was a swell idea. 

This ubiquitous connectivity among devices and objects — what we now call the "Internet of Things" — would allow them to collect performance data to help design new weapons, monitor equipment remotely, and realize myriad other benefits. The risks were less assiduously cataloged.

That strategy has spread huge vulnerabilities across the Defense Department, its networks, and much of what the defense industry has spent the last several decades creating.



























Defies Financial Control With Dire Consequences for the Nation’s Economic Future






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A law passed in 1994 initially set the deadline for 1997, but the Pentagon’s books were in such disarray that it blew past that date. Then, in 2010, Congress told the Pentagon to comply by 2017.

The next year, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta pledged that the department would by 2014 be ready for a partial account of its finances – a much less detailed accounting than requested of the military services — but the department missed that deadline too.
Pentagon Remains Stubbornly Unable To Account for Its Billions 


These Warfare Realities Cannot, And Will Not, Continue.

The debt is too great a burden for generations of tax payers.

It is too risky in terms of technology that has fallen into enemy hands, either through the "Internet of Things" or by blunders in export management. 


They will be replaced by domestic and foreign relations programs that emphasize global human progress and economic development in lieu of threats.  The result will rely on uplifting, cooperative efforts among nations in lieu of killing. 


The globe has become too small to operate the Military Industrial Machine and the resources that have fueled it will be redirected. 


There simply is no other way. 


The change will be brought about in the following manner:


Facing geopolitical and economic realities, stopping war interventions and investing in relationships within and without our country by offering mutual collaboration.


Ceasing to dwell on threat and building long term infrastructure, education and international development.  The threats will melt away. 


Investing for the long term at the stock holder, company and  national levels based on a strategy dealing with both present day and long term challenges in education, communication and society value transitions.


Communicating  with Congress and The Administration to strike a balance between long and short term actions. Let them know what we think regularly about the risk this huge machine  poses. 


Knowing that most cultures and societies in upheaval today are watching our national model and choosing whether to support it, ignore it or attack it. 
The Dire Necessity for U.S. Long Term Strategic Vision 




Thursday, March 05, 2026

An Inspiring Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business Success Story


"WIKIPEDIA.COM"

"FLAGS OF VALOR" was opened in December 2015 as a veteran-owned and veteran-run small business in AshburnVirginia with the aim "to bring meaningful employment to combat veterans". By April 2020 Flags of Valor had hired a total of 65 veterans since opening and sold more than 25,000 flags"

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"Brian Steorts and Joe Shamess met as United States Air Force pilots at Hurlburt Field. Both of them have served numerous combat deployments to regions including AfghanistanIraq and the Pacific Islands. Due to a service-related spinal injury during his ninth deployment in Afghanistan, Brian Steorts, an Army (82nd Airborne) and Air Force Special OperationsCommand veteran, found himself in rehab no longer wearing his patches.

Missing the uniform, he tried to find himself a flag, but couldn't find the flag he was looking for, one that was truly Made in America. So after a recommendation by Joe, Steorts decided to make one for himself, a completely veteran made flag of the United States. He found the woodworking therapeutic during the physical therapy.The first few flags he made were given to the families of fallen explosive ordnance disposal soldiers, and from there the business idea grew.

Flags of Valour was opened in December 2015 as a veteran-owned and veteran-run small business in AshburnVirginia with the aim "to bring meaningful employment to combat veterans". By April 2020 Flags of Valor has hired a total of 65 veterans since opening. These combat veterans come from backgrounds such as the Korean War and the Iraq war. Most of the veterans are service and combat disabled.

Each plank for the flags is hand-selected, cut, stained, painted, antiqued and finally protected with polyurethane. They are designed and crafted with an artistic rustic look. Each flag is tagged by the veteran who crafted it and named after military related historical events or people, such as the Gadsden Flag created and named after Christopher Gadsden. 

Depending on the flag, the cost varies between $55 and $500. By the end of 2018 Flags of Valor had sold more than 25,000 flags. The manufacturing facility is in Winchester. The flags are crafted using 'American-sourced tools, supplies and material’."

Wikipedia - "Flags of Valor"

Monday, March 02, 2026

Decades-Old Congressional Authorizations To Presidents For Carte Blanche War-Making Are Ticking Time Bombs

 


PLEASE CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

"THE HILL" By Jim Jones - Vietnam Combat Veteran, Idaho Attorney General (1983-1991) and 12 Year Justice On The Idaho Supreme Court (2005-2017)

"Both the 2001 and 2002 congressional authorizations should be repealed because they are no longer needed and are ticking time bombs of potential abuse should future military action be necessitated,

The public should demand action, rather than once again handing a president carte blanche authority to conduct a limitless war."

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"The nation recently observed the anniversary of the horrendous 9/11 attacks by Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda network. Bin Laden died 12 years ago and, while there are still elements of his network in various locales around the world, al Qaeda no longer poses a direct threat to the American homeland.

After the 9/11 attacks, it made sense for Congress to authorize the president to respond — to seek out and neutralize the terrorists and their enablers. Congress has historically granted the executive branch the ability to conduct war through what is called authorization for use of military force (AUMF) in specified circumstances. They should obviously be narrowly targeted at the culprits and those in league with them, rather than granting virtually unlimited power to conduct warfare.

Unfortunately, the 2001 AUMF approved by Congress on Sept. 18, 2001, which initiated the country’s global war on terrorism, was not limited in time, geographic scope or circumstances. It is still very much alive today, even though the threat it was intended to address has largely dissipated.

There is good reason to believe that the carte blanche war-making power granted in the 2001 authorization was designed to include military action against Saddam Hussein and his regime in Iraq. Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld were both part of an organization advocating the removal of Hussein well before George W. Bush was elected president.

Congress approved a 2002 authorization specifically directed against Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, but there is strong evidence to suggest that the Bush administration had already decided in the fall of 2001 to invade Iraq. The 2002 war authorization was just handy window dressing. That no evidence turned up to justify the Iraq War was not the result of an intelligence failure. Rather, it likely resulted from a fabrication of intelligence.

Many American and Iraqi lives were lost because of the overly broad 2001 authorization and the totally unwarranted 2002 authorization. Nearly 4,600 U.S. service personnel and 3,650 American contractors died in the Iraq War and its aftermath. There have been between 280,771 and 315,190 Iraqi civilians killed by direct violence since the U.S. invasion. All of those deaths can be laid at the feet of Vice President Dick Cheney, Sec. of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and the other opportunists who took advantage of the 9/11 tragedy, twisting the nation’s grief and anger to further their personal political agenda of conquering Iraq.

In addition to the cost in human lives, the AUMFs imposed crushing economic burdens on American taxpayers. The cost for just the Iraq War was about $2 trillion. The total cost, past and future, for the global war on terror, has been estimated at $8 trillion, including almost $6 trillion for war and war-related outlays through fiscal year 2022.

Added to the cost in blood and treasure is the loss of trust in America’s leaders, both by our own people and by our allies across the world, the extreme wear and tear on our military from having to conduct two bruising wars simultaneously and the fact that we handed a great victory to Iran by disposing of Saddam Hussein, its arch enemy. It is unfortunate that Rumsfeld, Cheney and their enablers were not called to account in the criminal justice system for their misuse of the congressional war authorizations.

There is no reason for the 2002 authorization to remain on the books. It should be outright repealed. The Senate voted overwhelmingly for repeal in March and the issue is supposed to come before the House of Representatives soon. Americans should weigh in to see that it gets done.

The 2001 AUMF may have provided some initial benefits to the United States in Afghanistan but, overall, it has done more harm than good to the country. Because of its virtually limitless wording, it poses a much greater threat of potential misuse in the future. Legislation is pending in the House that would repeal the 2001 AUMF and replace it with a measure narrowly targeting existing terrorist threats. House Joint Resolution 2 also contains a sunset clause, so it would not be on the books forever. The public should demand quick and favorable action on this legislation.

Both congressional authorizations should be repealed because they are no longer needed and are ticking time bombs of potential abuse. Should future military action be necessitated, Congress must do its job — demand adequate justification for an AUMF, tailor it to the exact needs and limit its duration — rather than once again handing a president carte blanche authority to conduct a limitless war.

AUMF Ticking Time Bomb